 |
Smart
Money Index Trading
+10,157%
1995-2006
My bread and butter
indicator...
The Smart Money indicator is my
favorite stock trading tool of all time. All told, it took me 5
years to develop. It has nothing to do with the price of any
particular index or exchange, but it has everything to do with
the positioning of various players in the US stock market.
I had to really dig deep to
find what data is worth knowing about the market. Even then, it
took me awhile to figure out how I could turn those numbers into
something usable.
Time to go to work
It finally hit me one day...I
was reading the data all wrong. I basically moved into my office
for the next several weeks so I could gather and reformat all
the data I could find, and then program my ideas into a
computer.
The results were remarkable.
Using only one indicator, I found out that my little experiment
turned into an explosive market timer. Not only can the Smart
Money indicator be used to time my stock trading, it can also be
used in a stand alone trading system on the S&P 500.
Stunning profit factor
The Smart Money indicator is either 100% long or 100%
short the market -- in other words, it's always in a trade. Since 1995, it's had 31 trade signals, with an
accuracy of 87.1% winners...and the winners have been almost 5
times the size of the losers for a profit factor of 24.69.
Watch the video showing all Smart Money signals
How to use the signals
To trade the signals, we are
using two new investment vehicles:
- SSO, which trades
like a stock and is 200% long the S&P 500. When the S&P 500
goes up 1%, SSO should go up 2%
- SDS, which mimics a
200% short position on the S&P 500. When the S&P 500 goes down
1%, SDS should go up 2%. SDS can be used in a
retirement account!
In the past, we have used
SPY to buy or sell short the index. The new funds have very
low fees, and the 200% leverage means you won't have to pay
margin fees (which reduce performance 6-8% a year or more).
This system is extremely easy
to follow. If you're a new trader, this is the system I
recommend following because you will make less mistakes.
As a member, you have access to
this one of a kind market timer. We'll give you the heads up to
simply buy one of the two funds the day before (for the next day's
open).
 Index option trading
I'm now offering index option
trade signals to accompany the regular buy/sell signals. I'll
provide you with which long-term option contracts to buy (LEAPs).
Options can have tremendous gains of several hundred percent,
and your only risk is the initial amount you purchase them for.
Yearly Performance Summary
(starting with $100,000 and
including commissions, interest,
and slippage)
| Year |
Days |
Closed
Balance |
End
Total Equity |
Total
Equity Gain |
Gain
% |
#
Trades |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1995 |
365 |
$94,004.87 |
$163,235.57 |
$63,235.57 |
63.2% |
0 |
| 1996 |
366 |
$155,272.36 |
$196,708.83 |
$33,473.26 |
20.5% |
2 |
| 1997 |
365 |
$331,138.88 |
$332,093.87 |
$135,385.04 |
68.8% |
5 |
| 1998 |
365 |
$550,853.39 |
$806,150.83 |
$474,056.95 |
142.7% |
3 |
| 1999 |
365 |
$1,103,152.38 |
$1,038,392.81 |
$232,241.99 |
28.8% |
3 |
| 2000 |
366 |
$1,248,062.12 |
$1,490,583.18 |
$452,190.37 |
43.5% |
2 |
| 2001 |
365 |
$2,656,021.42 |
$2,868,443.99 |
$1,377,860.80 |
92.4% |
3 |
| 2002 |
365 |
$3,772,769.63 |
$3,864,374.55 |
$995,930.56 |
34.7% |
3 |
| 2003 |
365 |
$5,312,407.96 |
$5,973,920.89 |
$2,109,546.34 |
54.6% |
3 |
| 2004 |
366 |
$6,564,783.61 |
$6,422,003.95 |
$448,083.06 |
7.5% |
3 |
| 2005 |
365 |
$6,409,734.45 |
$7,173,896.25 |
$751,892.30 |
11.7% |
1 |
| 2006 |
361 |
$10,257,118.65 |
$10,257,118.65 |
$3,083,222.40 |
43.0% |
3 |
| Trading
Performance |
|
| CAGR
% |
42.79% |
| Maximum
Total Equity Drawdown % |
29.76% |
| MAR
Ratio |
1.44 |
|
| Margin
to Equity Ratio |
166.77% |
| Daily
Return % |
0.1562% |
| Daily
Geometric Return % |
0.1368% |
| Daily
Standard Deviation % |
1.98% |
| Daily
Downside Deviation % |
1.39% |
| Daily
Sharpe % |
0.07 |
| Daily
Sortino % |
0.11 |
|
| Modified
Sharpe Ratio |
1.53 |
| Annual
Sharpe Ratio |
1.02 |
| Annual
Sortino Ratio |
+
∞ |
| Monthly
Sharpe Ratio |
0.41 |
| Monthly
Sortino Ratio |
0.72 |
| Calmar
Ratio |
1.76 |
| R-Squared |
0.977 |
|
| Longest
Total Equity Drawdown (months) |
11.97 |
| Maximum
Monthly Total Equity Drawdown % |
24.33% |
| Maximum
Monthly Closed Equity Drawdown % |
8.78% |
| Maximum
Closed Equity Drawdown % |
8.22% |
| Average
Closed Equity Drawdown % |
5.46% |
|
| Round
Turns Per Million |
42,489 |
| Round
Turns |
1,487,058 |
| Total
Trades |
31 |
|
| Start
Account Balance |
$100,000.00 |
| Total
Win Dollars |
$12,616,293.57 |
| Total
Loss Dollars |
$511,045.12 |
| Total
Profit |
$12,105,248.45 |
| Earned
Interest |
$0.00 |
| Margin
Interest |
$1,948,129.80 |
| End
Account Balance |
$10,257,118.65 |
| End
Open Equity |
$0.00 |
| End
Total Equity |
$10,257,118.65 |
|
| Highest
Total Equity |
$10,357,400.93 |
| Highest
Closed Equity |
$10,257,118.65 |
|
| Total
Commissions |
$14,870.58 |
| Commission
per Round Turn |
$0.01 |
| Total
Slippage |
$102,837.23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Monte
Carlo Confidence Level Statistics |
|
| 90%
Return |
33.04% |
| 90%
Sharpe |
-0.06 |
| 90%
MAR |
0.99 |
| 90%
R Squared |
0.955 |
| 90%
Maximum Drawdown |
36.34% |
| 90%
Second Largest Drawdown |
29.76% |
| 90%
Third Largest Drawdown |
27.90% |
| 90%
Longest Drawdown |
15.4 |
| 90%
Second Longest Drawdown |
9.7 |
| 90%
Third Longest Drawdown |
7.3 |
Click here for instant access to your free
trial
The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades.
Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or
simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an
actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading.
Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have
under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors
such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results
portrayed.
|
|
 |
Join
our team. The first 30 days are free. Click
here
|
 |
|
|
|
