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Breakdown
System
+1,728%
1995-2006
Don't let the seemingly
underperformance fool you! This system only trades when the
intermediate-term trend for the market is bearish. When our
Smart Money indicator issues a sell signal, this system kicks
into action by shorting stocks in down trends.
Most of this system's money was
made during the bear market of 2000-2002. Our Smart Money
indicator was mostly bearish that whole time. However, even the
recent sell signal in mid-2006 saw this system strut it's stuff
once again.
Short the junk, take a
profit, then move on.
This system is very similar to
the Breakout system. The key difference is that we don't let our
winners run. We take our profits and move on. Trading the short
side of the stock market is trickier than the long side. Stocks
tend to fall apart quicker than they go up.
In any event, we give you the
stocks to short near the open, then update their stop losses as
price falls. A profit target is also given at the start of the
trade.
Shorting stocks is very easy to
do these days. The rules for shorting a stock on an up tick have
been changing for the past few years. It never made sense to me
why short selling was made so difficult. Desperate times create
desperate laws in congress I suppose (referring to the aftermath
of the 1929 stock market crash).
Yearly Performance Summary
(starting with $100,000 and
including commissions, interest,
and slippage)
| Year |
Days |
Closed
Balance |
End
Total Equity |
Total
Equity Gain |
Gain
% |
#
Trades |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1995 |
365 |
$99,468.54 |
$99,468.54 |
$-65.29 |
-0.1% |
1 |
| 1996 |
366 |
$99,427.92 |
$99,427.92 |
$-40.62 |
-0.0% |
1 |
| 1997 |
365 |
$92,862.01 |
$88,589.84 |
$-10,838.07 |
-10.9% |
5 |
| 1998 |
365 |
$109,857.55 |
$109,857.55 |
$21,267.71 |
24.0% |
40 |
| 1999 |
365 |
$119,392.47 |
$118,057.47 |
$8,199.92 |
7.5% |
15 |
| 2000 |
366 |
$287,660.22 |
$273,745.11 |
$155,687.65 |
131.9% |
68 |
| 2001 |
365 |
$540,254.12 |
$540,254.12 |
$266,509.00 |
97.4% |
55 |
| 2002 |
365 |
$1,325,902.13 |
$1,338,908.85 |
$798,654.74 |
147.8% |
78 |
| 2003 |
365 |
$1,274,047.05 |
$1,274,047.05 |
$-64,861.80 |
-4.8% |
5 |
| 2004 |
366 |
$1,273,720.24 |
$1,273,720.24 |
$-326.81 |
-0.0% |
3 |
| 2005 |
365 |
$1,441,971.82 |
$1,441,971.82 |
$168,251.58 |
13.2% |
26 |
| 2006 |
361 |
$1,828,694.63 |
$1,828,694.63 |
$386,722.81 |
26.8% |
36 |
| Trading
Performance |
|
| CAGR
% |
25.05% |
| Maximum
Total Equity Drawdown % |
30.52% |
| MAR
Ratio |
0.82 |
|
| Margin
to Equity Ratio |
23.72% |
| Daily
Return % |
0.0991% |
| Daily
Geometric Return % |
0.0858% |
| Daily
Standard Deviation % |
1.63% |
| Daily
Downside Deviation % |
2.48% |
| Daily
Sharpe % |
0.06 |
| Daily
Sortino % |
0.04 |
|
| Modified
Sharpe Ratio |
0.79 |
| Annual
Sharpe Ratio |
0.40 |
| Annual
Sortino Ratio |
4.98 |
| Monthly
Sharpe Ratio |
0.20 |
| Monthly
Sortino Ratio |
0.36 |
| Calmar
Ratio |
1.09 |
| R-Squared |
0.861 |
|
| Longest
Total Equity Drawdown (months) |
44.12 |
| Maximum
Monthly Total Equity Drawdown % |
22.96% |
| Maximum
Monthly Closed Equity Drawdown % |
26.24% |
| Maximum
Closed Equity Drawdown % |
29.97% |
| Average
Closed Equity Drawdown % |
6.87% |
|
| Round
Turns Per Million |
482,480 |
| Round
Turns |
4,724,885 |
| Total
Trades |
333 |
|
| Start
Account Balance |
$100,000.00 |
| Total
Win Dollars |
$3,512,301.90 |
| Total
Loss Dollars |
$1,749,525.62 |
| Total
Profit |
$1,762,776.28 |
| Earned
Interest |
$0.00 |
| Margin
Interest |
$34,081.66 |
| End
Account Balance |
$1,828,694.63 |
| End
Open Equity |
$0.00 |
| End
Total Equity |
$1,828,694.63 |
|
| Highest
Total Equity |
$1,893,007.53 |
| Highest
Closed Equity |
$1,828,694.63 |
|
| Total
Commissions |
$47,248.85 |
| Commission
per Round Turn |
$0.01 |
| Total
Slippage |
$106,062.72 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Monte
Carlo Confidence Level Statistics |
|
| 90%
Return |
14.16% |
| 90%
Sharpe |
-0.05 |
| 90%
MAR |
0.39 |
| 90%
R Squared |
0.794 |
| 90%
Maximum Drawdown |
41.89% |
| 90%
Second Largest Drawdown |
32.58% |
| 90%
Third Largest Drawdown |
30.52% |
| 90%
Longest Drawdown |
42.0 |
| 90%
Second Longest Drawdown |
24.0 |
| 90%
Third Longest Drawdown |
16.6 |
Click here for instant access to your free
trial
The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades.
Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or
simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an
actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading.
Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have
under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors
such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results
portrayed.
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