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Creating a Portfolio
How much do I put
in a position? How many positions should I have? What do I do if
I'm adding money into my account? Those are questions most people don't really give
much consideration. I for one believe these to be the most
essential questions. In fact, I have tested these questions over
and over.
What is the number
of positions where I can keep my reward/risk ratio at an optimum
level? Not only that, but do I just rely on one trading system,
or spread money around several?
What I have found
works best in my testing is spreading money evenly between 10
positions per system...which of course implies using several
systems to spread your money around.
Using 10 positions
allows you to trade most of the money allocated to each system
(so you're invested as much as possible), and it diversifies
enough so that one catastrophic event (such as a stock going to
zero...which has not happened to me yet) does not set you back
too long.
How you trade and
how often is (like everything else) a personal decision based on
your risk tolerance and dedication to trading.
All of our trading
systems have great track records, but vary in how often they
trade:
|
System Name |
Description |
Trade
Direction |
Performance (1995-2006) |
Best
Year |
Avg
Trades per Year |
Max
Open Positions |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Base Hit |
Fast
buys and high win % to take advantage of dips within a
trend.
|
Long
only |
+4,923% |
+63.8% |
240 |
10 |
|
Profit Taker |
Quick
buys for 1-5 day holds. Works even during bear markets. The
best gain/pain ratio of all our systems.
|
Long
only |
+19,454% |
+238.6% |
166 |
10 |
|
Profit Taker 2 |
Uses a longer time frame
for 8-16 days holds. The trades are simply bought on the
open the next day.
|
Long
only |
+4,517% |
+142.2% |
83 |
10 |
|
Breakout |
A trend
following system that tries to catch the big moves in
stocks. Trades less frequently (about 67 times a year). The
positions are simply entered on the open. Most trades last
15-40 days.
|
Long
only |
+5,888% |
+159.3% |
67 |
10 |
|
Smart Money Index Trader |
Using the Smart Money
indicator, this system trades the S&P 500. It's either long
or short at all times (about 3 trades a year).
|
Long &
Short |
+10,157% |
+142.7% |
3 |
1 |
|
SP Slugger |
A quick
S&P 500 trading system to take advantage of price
inefficiencies. SP Slugger trades for the quick base hit
several times a year. 89% winners since 1995.
|
Long & Short |
+10,633% |
+156.0% |
20 |
1 |
|
Breakdown |
This
trend following system trades only when the Smart Money
indicator gives the green light to short the market. It
trades less frequently, and positions are entered on the
open. |
Short
only |
+1,728% |
+147.8% |
27 |
10 |
Choose the systems
that work best for your particular style of trading. They are
all included as a member.
I never know when
I'm going to win or lose. My odds are sometimes no better than a
coin toss (but the winners are much bigger than losers). Would
you gamble everything on a coin toss? Most traders blow up their
account because they have no discipline or money management
rules. I hope you keep that in mind when you decide how much to
risk on your next trade.
Here are a few
ideas for portfolios that I've tested:
(SMI = the
Smart Money indicator)
|
Portfolio A:
65% allocation
to Profit Taker 2 (Long only when SMI is bullish)
35% allocation to Breakout
(Long only when SMI is bullish)
60% allocation to Breakdown
(Short only when SMI is bearish)
40% allocation to Smart
Money Index Trader (Short only)
This is a fairly easy
system to trade. Positions are all bought on the open, and
there would be a max of 20 stocks to deal with at any one
time. When it's time to short the market, there will be a
max of 11 positions open at once. The Smart Money Index
Trader simply opens a short position on the S&P 500 (using
SPY).
The following test results
use 2-1 margin and accounts for margin interest, slippage,
and commissions.
Yearly Performance Summary
|
Year |
Days |
Closed Balance |
End Total Equity |
Total Equity Gain |
Gain % |
# Trades |
 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1995 |
365 |
$133,034.81 |
$150,813.89 |
$50,813.89 |
50.8% |
198 |
|
1996 |
366 |
$167,913.39 |
$172,341.26 |
$21,527.36 |
14.3% |
201 |
|
1997 |
365 |
$293,876.66 |
$291,779.42 |
$119,438.16 |
69.3% |
127 |
|
1998 |
365 |
$525,340.25 |
$663,802.56 |
$372,023.14 |
127.5% |
169 |
|
1999 |
365 |
$1,456,249.26 |
$1,412,435.60 |
$748,633.04 |
112.8% |
182 |
|
2000 |
366 |
$2,294,117.28 |
$2,730,677.66 |
$1,318,242.06 |
93.3% |
97 |
|
2001 |
365 |
$5,311,904.74 |
$5,959,607.68 |
$3,228,930.02 |
118.2% |
133 |
|
2002 |
365 |
$12,629,280.67 |
$12,860,111.16 |
$6,900,503.48 |
115.8% |
137 |
|
2003 |
365 |
$21,998,646.18 |
$25,027,947.57 |
$12,167,836.41 |
94.6% |
237 |
|
2004 |
366 |
$39,755,998.47 |
$39,450,562.10 |
$14,422,614.53 |
57.6% |
234 |
|
2005 |
365 |
$49,752,733.53 |
$52,084,061.18 |
$12,633,499.08 |
32.0% |
236 |
|
2006 |
365 |
$95,456,368.36 |
$105,753,618.51 |
$53,669,557.33 |
103.0% |
257 |
|
2007 |
39 |
$110,898,816.84 |
$110,898,816.84 |
$5,145,198.33 |
4.9% |
53 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
CAGR = 70.89%/year
Wins = 1184
52.4%
Losses = 1077
47.6%
Percent Profit Factor =
2.21
Max DD = 29.53%
MAR = 2.40
Martin Ratio = 9.68
Longest Drawdown = 12.3
months
|
|
Portfolio B
100%
allocation to Profit Taker 2 (Long only when SMI is bullish)
60% allocation to Breakdown
(Short only when SMI is bearish)
40% allocation to Smart
Money Index Trader (Short only)
Here's another example that
uses fewer systems to diversify between. A maximum of 11
positions would be on at once. The results are outstanding,
but putting too much into any one system can be a drawback
with a large portfolio.
Yearly Performance Summary
|
Year |
Days |
Closed Balance |
End Total Equity |
Total Equity Gain |
Gain % |
# Trades |
 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1995 |
365 |
$140,585.98 |
$144,239.25 |
$44,239.25 |
44.2% |
110 |
|
1996 |
366 |
$157,138.48 |
$156,783.63 |
$12,544.39 |
8.7% |
107 |
|
1997 |
365 |
$261,681.99 |
$259,815.00 |
$103,031.37 |
65.7% |
74 |
|
1998 |
365 |
$481,521.78 |
$507,645.85 |
$247,830.85 |
95.4% |
112 |
|
1999 |
365 |
$1,287,639.14 |
$1,249,015.00 |
$741,369.15 |
146.0% |
115 |
|
2000 |
366 |
$2,193,065.35 |
$2,611,964.33 |
$1,362,949.34 |
109.1% |
73 |
|
2001 |
365 |
$5,400,547.79 |
$5,304,694.76 |
$2,692,730.43 |
103.1% |
105 |
|
2002 |
365 |
$11,817,965.86 |
$12,033,791.76 |
$6,729,097.00 |
126.9% |
99 |
|
2003 |
365 |
$23,204,732.81 |
$25,305,329.45 |
$13,271,537.70 |
110.3% |
158 |
|
2004 |
366 |
$38,516,274.61 |
$38,221,199.92 |
$12,915,870.47 |
51.0% |
149 |
|
2005 |
365 |
$52,109,110.23 |
$52,658,921.39 |
$14,437,721.47 |
37.8% |
161 |
|
2006 |
365 |
$91,913,910.79 |
$94,173,843.56 |
$41,514,922.16 |
78.8% |
184 |
|
2007 |
39 |
$92,824,186.81 |
$92,824,186.81 |
$-1,349,656.74 |
-1.4% |
31 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
CAGR = 68.6%/year
Wins = 790
53.5%
Losses = 688
46.5%
Percent Profit Factor =
2.25
Max DD = 29.53%
MAR = 2.32
Martin Ratio = 9.07
Longest DD = 13.0 months
|
|
Portfolio C
30% allocation
to Profit Taker
30%
allocation to Profit Taker 2 (Long only when SMI is bullish)
30% allocation to Breakout
(Long only when SMI is bullish)
60% allocation to Breakdown
(Short only when SMI is bearish)
10% allocation to Smart
Money Index Trader (Long and Short)
This is a much more
diversified portfolio of trading systems. All systems are
used with 10 positions max per system, so there could be 31
positions open when the Smart Money is Long, or 21 when the
Smart Money is short.
This is a serious portfolio
of stocks, which is great for an active trader with a large
account. Including the Profit Taker system helps smooth out
results since it tends to keep making new equity peaks on a
consistent basis.
Yearly Performance Summary
|
Year |
Days |
Closed Balance |
End Total Equity |
Total Equity Gain |
Gain % |
# Trades |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1995 |
365 |
$138,097.83 |
$160,339.24 |
$58,718.34 |
57.8% |
295 |
|
1996 |
366 |
$192,302.38 |
$200,931.22 |
$40,591.98 |
25.3% |
353 |
|
1997 |
365 |
$303,789.73 |
$304,963.28 |
$104,032.06 |
51.8% |
341 |
|
1998 |
365 |
$474,015.31 |
$610,065.73 |
$305,102.45 |
100.0% |
373 |
|
1999 |
365 |
$1,346,954.34 |
$1,341,582.45 |
$731,516.72 |
119.9% |
427 |
|
2000 |
366 |
$2,476,532.61 |
$2,797,364.50 |
$1,455,782.05 |
108.5% |
388 |
|
2001 |
365 |
$5,274,330.31 |
$5,710,944.02 |
$2,913,579.52 |
104.2% |
388 |
|
2002 |
365 |
$10,948,553.27 |
$11,272,687.76 |
$5,561,743.74 |
97.4% |
401 |
|
2003 |
365 |
$20,127,175.06 |
$21,989,829.75 |
$10,717,141.99 |
95.1% |
566 |
|
2004 |
366 |
$34,420,786.79 |
$34,320,821.64 |
$12,330,991.89 |
56.1% |
599 |
|
2005 |
365 |
$41,582,027.45 |
$43,509,035.56 |
$9,188,213.92 |
26.8% |
604 |
|
2006 |
365 |
$65,628,083.25 |
$74,117,034.74 |
$30,607,999.18 |
70.3% |
645 |
|
2007 |
39 |
$75,319,008.05 |
$75,319,008.05 |
$1,201,973.31 |
1.6% |
107 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
CAGR = 65.9%/year
Wins = 2682
48.7%
Losses = 2823
51.3%
Percent Profit Factor =
2.12
Max DD = 26.07%
MAR = 2.53
Martin Ratio = 12.47
Longest DD = 9.3 months
|
|
Portfolio D
50%
allocation to Profit Taker 2 (Long only when SMI is bullish...5
positions max)
50% allocation to Breakout
(Long only when SMI is bearish...5 positions max)
50% allocation to Breakdown
(Short only when SMI is bearish...10 positions max)
50% allocation to Smart
Money Index Trader (Short only)
I'm asked all
the time whether one could trade a couple systems while
keeping the number of positions held rather low. Well, it
can be done, you would just skip any new trades if you have
your maximum number of open positions in any one particular
system (so if you already have 5 trades open with Breakout,
you would ignore new orders to buy).
My research
has shown that 10 positions per system is optimal, but since
you're the one trading the picks, it's really up to you.
Just beware that you're assuming more risk by spreading
money between fewer positions. Still, the results are
interesting.
Yearly Performance Summary
|
Year |
Days |
Closed Balance |
End Total Equity |
Total Equity Gain |
Gain % |
# Trades |
 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1995 |
365 |
$141,697.57 |
$164,500.68 |
$64,500.68 |
64.5% |
121 |
|
1996 |
366 |
$184,653.80 |
$182,853.43 |
$18,352.75 |
11.2% |
128 |
|
1997 |
365 |
$288,578.97 |
$286,015.39 |
$103,161.96 |
56.4% |
76 |
|
1998 |
365 |
$710,246.52 |
$884,166.89 |
$598,151.50 |
209.1% |
103 |
|
1999 |
365 |
$1,733,862.27 |
$1,672,039.53 |
$787,872.64 |
89.1% |
99 |
|
2000 |
366 |
$2,580,111.24 |
$3,074,147.41 |
$1,402,107.88 |
83.9% |
70 |
|
2001 |
365 |
$6,189,679.66 |
$7,999,692.96 |
$4,925,545.56 |
160.2% |
94 |
|
2002 |
365 |
$14,315,940.52 |
$14,490,794.22 |
$6,491,101.26 |
81.1% |
101 |
|
2003 |
365 |
$28,757,743.33 |
$33,653,867.54 |
$19,163,073.32 |
132.2% |
123 |
|
2004 |
366 |
$57,159,904.18 |
$56,611,723.18 |
$22,957,855.63 |
68.2% |
120 |
|
2005 |
365 |
$57,726,240.16 |
$59,280,140.72 |
$2,668,417.54 |
4.7% |
127 |
|
2006 |
365 |
$98,761,907.26 |
$114,790,330.15 |
$55,510,189.43 |
93.6% |
143 |
|
2007 |
39 |
$110,263,752.32 |
$110,263,752.32 |
$-4,526,577.83 |
-3.9% |
29 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
CAGR = 70.8%/year
Wins = 709
53.1%
Losses = 626
46.9%
Percent Profit Factor =
2.22
Max DD = 29.9%
MAR = 2.37
Martin Ratio = 8.14
Longest DD = 12.4 months
As you can see, there are
many different ways to configure your portfolio. If you're
new to trading, it's often best to trade a system that gives
fewer signals (that way it's less likely that you'll make a
mistake, and it's psychologically easier as well). I recommend trading the Smart Money Index Trader
System...which only gives about 3 trades a year.
Thoughts on
Adding Money To
a Trading Account
So what do you do if you're
adding funds to your trading account? Do you add to
positions or what?
First of all, it's a good
idea to have a time-schedule for adding money to your
account. It could be monthly or quarterly or based on some
dollar amount in your savings. Whatever the case, write it
down and stick to it.
When the money you added is
ready to be traded (usually within a couple business days),
I DO NOT add to current positions. Instead, I wait for new
signals, and calculate how much to put into each position
based on how much available equity I have (called RegTEquity)
in my account (which is exactly how I calculated
before...except now there's more in my account).
*****Note***************************
I can already see the
questions coming in. RegTEquity is simply your Net
Liquidation minus the market value of options you have. So
if I have $100,000 net liquidation and $20,000 in options,
my RegTEquity should be $80,000. I NEVER use how much I have
in options to calculate how much to put into the other
trading systems. They fluctuate too much.
************************************
For example, I might have
$100,000 in RegTEquity. I then wire in $10,000. If I was
dividing money between trading systems like this (when the
SMI is LONG):
25% Breakout (10 positions)
= ($110,000*0.25)/10 = $2,750 per position
25% Profit Taker 2 (10
positions) = ($110,000*0.25)/10 = $2,750 per position
30% Smart Money Index
Trader = $110,000 * 0.30 = $33,000 in SSO*
20% SMI (LEAP options) =
$110,000 * 0.20 = $22,000 in LEAP options*
So next time you get
a signal from the Breakout system, you would buy $2,750
worth of stock...you would not add to any current
positions.
*With the SMI system, you
CAN add to an open position...you just have to wait for a
re-buy signal from us. The re-buy signals usually
come every 1-2 months, but it's really up to the market.
For example, if I was
already in SSO and I just got another re-buy signal, I
would take however much I've added to my account (say
$10,000) and use 30% of that ($3,000) to buy more SSO and
20% ($2,000) to buy more LEAP options. Note how I'm only
using the amount added to calculate how much to
re-buy.
If I was NOT in SSO, then I
would buy ($110,000 * 0.30) = $30,000 worth of SSO and
($110,000 * 0.20) = $20,000 worth of LEAP options using the
above example.
The verbage I'm using might
be a bit tricky at first, but go through it a couple times
to digest how things work.
Note that the example above
is just that...an example. It's up to you on how to
configure your portfolio, but I believe there's a wealth of
information on this web site to give you a great guide.
You're already several steps ahead of the average trader. If
you're new to trading, you might want to simply trade the
Smart Money signals only (you'll make less mistakes that
way...and the gains can still be HUGE).

Click here for instant access to your free
trial
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*The results listed herein are based on hypothetical trades.
Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical or
simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an
actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading.
Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have
under (or over) compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors
such as lack of liquidity. You may have done better or worse than the results
portrayed.
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